All the best tips from the smartest financial, stock market and foreign exchange gurus.



The Big Picture
Barry Ritholtz
The Big Picture
The Dow is at 10,600, the SPX is at 1150. The Russell 2000 has regained 2/3rds of its price drop. Inquiring minds want to know: The start of something real, or a mere chep money, government induced binge? Is the move ending or beginning? What and why do you think? ~~~ What say ye? ...

The Big Picture | 11 Mar 2010 | 7:21 pm CST

The Big Picture
Barry Ritholtz
The Big Picture
Last week, I attended the Make Markets Be Markets conference. All of the videos from the conference are now posted (here). I found Elizabeth Warren’s discussion on the proposed Consumer Financial Protection Agency to be outstanding; I posted it here....

The Big Picture | 11 Mar 2010 | 4:15 pm CST

The Big Picture
Barry Ritholtz
The Big Picture
The Fed’s Flow of Funds report was released at noon, and showed a continuing healing of the household balance sheet:  Assets grew, liabilities shrank, so Net Worth improved.  Debt-to-income continued to decline (now 127%) from a peak of 136% (still much work to do here).  Even Owners’...

The Big Picture | 11 Mar 2010 | 3:00 pm CST

The Big Picture
Barry Ritholtz
The Big Picture
AAII Asset Allocation Survey – Equity allocation % deviation from 23yr. mean (Monthly Chart) chart courtesy of FusionIQ > Liquidity is a powerful tool. Given liquidity goes hand in hand with sentiment liquidity tends to be at its highest when equities are at their lows and investor sentiment i...

The Big Picture | 11 Mar 2010 | 1:00 pm CST

CrossingWallStreet.com
Eddie Elfenbein
Crossing Wall Street
If you like finding really off-the-radar stocks, you might want to check out little Seneca Foods (SENEA). This is a small food company based in upstate New York. The company was started in 1959 by Arthur Wolcott who still serves as Chairman of the Board. I haven’t drilled down on the numbers but...

CrossingWallStreet.com | 11 Mar 2010 | 12:02 pm CST

Commentary from Kathy Lien, Director of Research, GFT
Kathy Lien
Forex 360
It has been an extremely quiet day in the foreign exchange market with currency pairs such as the EUR/USD and USD/JPY confined within a 50 pip trading range. This contraction in volatility has been occurring in the EUR/USD for the past few weeks and signals that a breakout is imminent - tomorrow’...

Commentary from Kathy Lien, Director of Research, GFT | 11 Mar 2010 | 11:22 am CST

The Big Picture
Barry Ritholtz
The Big Picture
Nice graphic from a shop called Butler/Philbrick diagramming all manner of investor behavioral foibles: > chart courtesy of Butler/Philbrick > Thanks, Kevin!...

The Big Picture | 11 Mar 2010 | 10:30 am CST

CrossingWallStreet.com
Eddie Elfenbein
Crossing Wall Street
Here's the current yield curve of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, which means you get the yield plus the CPI. Looking at this, I can't help but think it's the Treasury equivalent of the Internet bubble from 10 years ago. I'm not a bond investor but I won't even think of investing in any...

CrossingWallStreet.com | 11 Mar 2010 | 9:52 am CST

The Big Picture
Barry Ritholtz
The Big Picture
The Ahead of the Tape column today in the WSJ suggests that the consumer is “not quite dead.” “Household net worth plummeted during the recession thanks to sharp declines in real estate and financial assets such as stocks, falling to a low of $48.5 trillion in the first quarter of ...

The Big Picture | 11 Mar 2010 | 9:00 am CST

The Big Picture
Barry Ritholtz
The Big Picture
What is it about derivatives that makes otherwise rational humans become so damned stupid? There is no need to over-complicate this; a rather simple series of steps can be undertaken to bring the most dangerous of derivatives out of the shadows and into light of day. Radical derivative deregulation ...

The Big Picture | 11 Mar 2010 | 6:26 am CST

Commentary from Kathy Lien, Director of Research, GFT
Kathy Lien
Forex 360
U.S. and Canadian trade numbers for the month of January were much stronger than the market had anticipated but weakness beneath the U.S. trade report's headlines pushed the U.S. dollar sharply lower. ...

Commentary from Kathy Lien, Director of Research, GFT | 11 Mar 2010 | 3:00 am CST

Commentary from Boris Schlossberg, Director of Research, GFT
Boris Schlossberg
Forex 360
A quiet session of consolidation in the currency market tonight with most of the event risk occurring in Asia Pacific as data from China and Australia dominated trade while euro and pound remained in tight ranges. Chinese economic performance continued to beat expectations with Retail Sales, Industr...

Commentary from Boris Schlossberg, Director of Research, GFT | 10 Mar 2010 | 10:21 pm CST

CrossingWallStreet.com
Eddie Elfenbein
Crossing Wall Street
Huzzah! The Bear Market is over for us! After more than two years, the Crossing Wall Street Buy List made a new all-time high today. The combined record of the Buy Lists going back to 2006 has made a capital gain of 17.65% which takes out our previous high of 17.46% set on December 24, 2007. Over ...

CrossingWallStreet.com | 10 Mar 2010 | 4:10 pm CST

The Big Picture
Barry Ritholtz
The Big Picture
Some eclectic items worth spending precious time with this afternoon: • 10 Years After: A Look Back at the Dotcom Boom and Bust (Wired) • When Bubble Burst: Companies Won, Investors Lost (WSJ) • Martin Wolf: The eurozone crisis is now a nightmare for Germany (FT) • Unemployment Rates, by Sta...

The Big Picture | 10 Mar 2010 | 4:00 pm CST

CrossingWallStreet.com
Eddie Elfenbein
Crossing Wall Street
Looking to build a quick-and-easy index fund? Of all the stocks in the Dow, United Technologies (UTX) has had the strongest daily correlation with the S&P 500 going back to the beginning of 2005. Each day’s UTX gain or loss has a 69.7% correlation with the S&P 500. If add in Dupont (DD), the corr...

CrossingWallStreet.com | 10 Mar 2010 | 3:26 pm CST

The Big Picture
Barry Ritholtz
The Big Picture
Paul Krugman, last Friday: But that’s not how Republicans see it [unemployment benefits]. Here’s what Senator Jon Kyl of Arizona, the second-ranking Republican in the Senate, had to say when defending Mr. Bunning’s position (although not joining his blockade): unemployment relief “doesn’t ...

The Big Picture | 10 Mar 2010 | 2:00 pm CST

Commentary from Kathy Lien, Director of Research, GFT
Kathy Lien
Forex 360
It has been another quiet day in the foreign exchange markets with the U.S. dollar trading higher against some currencies and lower against others. The fragment price action in greenback continues to reflect the divergence in the risks of investing in different countries. The dollar weakened agai...

Commentary from Kathy Lien, Director of Research, GFT | 10 Mar 2010 | 11:23 am CST

The Big Picture
Barry Ritholtz
The Big Picture
Matt Trivisonno no stranger to these pages. He has set up a new site to do “Real-Time Tracking of the US Economy Using Withholding Tax Revenue:” : The Daily Jobs Update. Here’s Matt: “I’m thinking that if payrolls stay flat, the annual growth rate can move up to zero. B...

The Big Picture | 10 Mar 2010 | 10:58 am CST

CrossingWallStreet.com
Eddie Elfenbein
Crossing Wall Street
Here’s the opening of a fascinating article on cognitive fluency from the Boston Globe: Imagine that your stockbroker - or the friend who’s always giving you stock tips - called and told you he had come up with a new investment strategy. Price-to-earnings ratios, debt levels, management, compet...

CrossingWallStreet.com | 10 Mar 2010 | 9:15 am CST

Kathy Lien
Kathy Lien
I was on CNBC Squawk Box Australia last night talking about the outlook for the Japanese Yen as well as the European currencies: ...

Kathy Lien | 10 Mar 2010 | 7:30 am CST

Commentary from Kathy Lien, Director of Research, GFT
Kathy Lien
Forex 360
This evening, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will deliver their second monetary policy announcement of the year and the key question is whether the central bank will finally bridge the gap between their monetary policy with that of Australia’s ...

Commentary from Kathy Lien, Director of Research, GFT | 10 Mar 2010 | 5:19 am CST

Commentary from Boris Schlossberg, Director of Research, GFT
Boris Schlossberg
Forex 360
The divergence between European and Asian Pacific risk FX continued for the second day in a row in the currency market as both euro and pound slumped against the dollar while Aussie pushed higher. The strength in the AUD/USD was driven by better than expected Chinese Trade Balance data which printe...

Commentary from Boris Schlossberg, Director of Research, GFT | 9 Mar 2010 | 11:44 pm CST

Commentary from Boris Schlossberg, Director of Research, GFT
Boris Schlossberg
Forex 360
German Trade Balance printed much worse than expected at 8.7B versus 16.4B forecasts as exports slid by -6.30%. This was the weakest reading since the March of 2009 when the global economy was in the throes of its worst contraction in post war period. The news was especially surprising given the dec...

Commentary from Boris Schlossberg, Director of Research, GFT | 9 Mar 2010 | 9:00 pm CST

CrossingWallStreet.com
Eddie Elfenbein
Crossing Wall Street
This chart below is perhaps the clearest reason why I find Nicholas Financial (NICK) such a compelling buy right now. This shows the company’s pre-tax profit (in millions) along with the provision for credit losses. What you see is just how damaging the credit loss provisions have been. I thi...

CrossingWallStreet.com | 9 Mar 2010 | 11:51 am CST

Kathy Lien
Kathy Lien
We just created a new trading strategy. If you are interested in receiving this FREE REPORT, please sign up by visiting BKForex Advisors and using this link for the Session Based Forex Breakout Trading Strategy ...

Kathy Lien | 9 Mar 2010 | 11:32 am CST

Commentary from Kathy Lien, Director of Research, GFT
Kathy Lien
Forex 360
The fragmented price action in the forex markets reflect the sharp disparity between what is happening in the North America and Asia with that of Europe. The dollar traded lower against all of the major currencies except for the euro and British pound. Growing concerns about fiscal deficits has sc...

Commentary from Kathy Lien, Director of Research, GFT | 9 Mar 2010 | 11:06 am CST

CrossingWallStreet.com
Eddie Elfenbein
Crossing Wall Street
On the first anniversary of the bull market, E.S. Browning looks at the valuation debate between economists Robert Shiller and Jeremy Siegel. Not surprisingly, Dr. Shiller thinks the stock market is expensive and Dr. Siegel thinks it’s cheap. Both men have held their positions for quite some ti...

CrossingWallStreet.com | 9 Mar 2010 | 9:29 am CST

Commentary from Kathy Lien, Director of Research, GFT
Kathy Lien
Forex 360
The stability in the forex on Monday was short-lived as comments by ratings agencies sent investors back into the safety of U.S. dollars. ...

Commentary from Kathy Lien, Director of Research, GFT | 9 Mar 2010 | 3:37 am CST

Commentary from Boris Schlossberg, Director of Research, GFT
Boris Schlossberg
Forex 360
Risk FX drifted lower in Asian and early European trade as worries over Southern European sovereign debt continued to dog the EUR/USD while cable suffered from a slew of negative data that pushed the unit back below the 1.5000 level. The Aussie was the only risk currency to hold its ground as data...

Commentary from Boris Schlossberg, Director of Research, GFT | 8 Mar 2010 | 11:25 pm CST

Commentary from Boris Schlossberg, Director of Research, GFT
Boris Schlossberg
Forex 360
While both euro and pound drifted lower in Asian session today, the Aussie continued to hold ground around the .9100 figure boosted by strong business sentiment and labor data. Australian NAB Business confidence survey rose to 19 from 15 the month prior while ANZ Job Advertisements soared to 19.1% f...

Commentary from Boris Schlossberg, Director of Research, GFT | 8 Mar 2010 | 9:01 pm CST

Kathy Lien
Kathy Lien
My favorite forex trade right now is shorting AUD/NZD. After hitting a 9 year high of 1.3124 last week, the rally in AUD/NZD is losing steam. I should have posted about this earlier, but I think there is still room for the currency pair to fall. Last week, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised i...

Kathy Lien | 8 Mar 2010 | 5:50 pm CST

CrossingWallStreet.com
Eddie Elfenbein
Crossing Wall Street
Ugh, how did I not see Home Depot (HD)? The stock is at a new 52-week high today. Actually, I did see it but still didn’t pull the trigger. These are the trades that really annoy me. Here’s what I wrote last June after HD raised guidance: Last year, HD earned $1.78 a share. In May, the company...

CrossingWallStreet.com | 8 Mar 2010 | 11:15 am CST

Commentary from Kathy Lien, Director of Research, GFT
Kathy Lien
Forex 360
With no U.S. economic data on the calendar, it has been an extremely quiet day in the forex markets. Despite the lackluster move in U.S. equities and the fact that many of the major currency pairs ended the day unchanged, traders remain optimistic. We know that the mood in the financial markets is...

Commentary from Kathy Lien, Director of Research, GFT | 8 Mar 2010 | 11:12 am CST

CrossingWallStreet.com
Eddie Elfenbein
Crossing Wall Street
This is going to be a big week for market anniversaries. Tomorrow is the first anniversary of the bull market. The S&P 500 closed March 9, 2009 at 676.53. That was a Monday. During the day on the previous Friday, March 6, the index got to its spooky intra-day low of 666.79. The day after tomorr...

CrossingWallStreet.com | 8 Mar 2010 | 9:22 am CST

CrossingWallStreet.com
Eddie Elfenbein
Crossing Wall Street
So far, it's a good morning for our stocks on the Buy List. SEI Investments (SEIC) is up over 4% thanks to an upgrade from Janney Montgomery Scott. It's about time someone noticed them. Also, Jos. A Banks (JOSB) just announced it's "risk-free" promotion: JoS. A. Bank Clothiers, Inc. announces it is...

CrossingWallStreet.com | 8 Mar 2010 | 9:00 am CST

CrossingWallStreet.com
Eddie Elfenbein
Crossing Wall Street
In 1935, Grace Goner invested $180 in Abbott Labs (ABT). She died earlier this year at the age of 100. Oh..and those ABT shares: $7 million. Like many people who lived through the Great Depression, Grace Groner was exceptionally restrained with her money. She got her clothes from rummage sales. ...

CrossingWallStreet.com | 8 Mar 2010 | 8:35 am CST

Commentary from Kathy Lien, Director of Research, GFT
Kathy Lien
Forex 360
It is commonly believed that March tends to be a positive month for the Japanese Yen because of the fiscal year end in Japan. Tax incentives and the desire to window dress their balance sheets usually encourage repatriation by Japanese corporations. ...

Commentary from Kathy Lien, Director of Research, GFT | 8 Mar 2010 | 3:00 am CST

Commentary from Boris Schlossberg, Director of Research, GFT
Boris Schlossberg
Forex 360
The euro rallied steadily towards the 1.3700 level in the wake of the strong support for Greece expressed by French President Nicholas Sarkozy over the weekend and a raft of fresh proposals by European policy makers to create new pan-European institutions to better deal with the fiscal financing pro...

Commentary from Boris Schlossberg, Director of Research, GFT | 7 Mar 2010 | 11:29 pm CST

Commentary from Boris Schlossberg, Director of Research, GFT
Boris Schlossberg
Forex 360
Greek Central Bank Governor George Provopoulos in an interview to FT Deutschland stated that Greece would be able to raise funds it needed to finance its deficit given the strength of last week’s 10 year Greek government bond auction. He also expressed confidence that financing costs would decline...

Commentary from Boris Schlossberg, Director of Research, GFT | 7 Mar 2010 | 9:09 pm CST

CrossingWallStreet.com
Eddie Elfenbein
Crossing Wall Street
Here's a strange statistical angle to today's jobs report. Officially, the unemployment rate was unchanged, 9.7%. But you break down the numbers, the rate was eerily the same. For January, the unemployment rate was 9.68662%. For February, it was 9.68719%. That's an increase of 57/100,000 of one p...

CrossingWallStreet.com | 5 Mar 2010 | 1:39 pm CST